Forum:2007 Pacific hurricane season/May
May Week 4 01E.Alvin 90E.INVEST Up on NRL ---CWY2190talk 01:18, 25 May 2007 (UTC) :12.2N 108.3W 25kts, also mentioned in the TWO: ::A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT ::550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL ::CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS ::POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. :--Ajm81 03:25, 25 May 2007 (UTC) ::It looks pretty good. I wouldn't be surprised if this became TD1-E in the next day or so. --Coredesat 09:00, 25 May 2007 (UTC) :::I thought the first INVEST would come from the area of interest mentioned in the Atlantic forum. But, whatever. Yeah, it does look really good. Cyclone1(13:55 UTC -25/05/2007) ::::Yep it does indeed look impressive. -- WmE 14:57, 25 May 2007 (UTC) TCFA issued. --Ajm81 22:03, 25 May 2007 (UTC) :::::I think we might have TD1-E pretty soon at this rate... CrazyC83 02:22, 26 May 2007 (UTC) ::::::VWS is high all around, though the system is in a low patch. Some models suggest development into TS. - SpL T > 07:29, 26 May 2007 (UTC) Storm looks good on infrared and visible. It's quite a nice-looking little blob. Bob rulz 08:22, 26 May 2007 (UTC) :Well, convection died off rapidly and there is only a spot of VERY cold convection well to the east of the center. The TWO says that development is still possible though. -- WmE 16:51, 26 May 2007 (UTC) 01E.NONAME Per NRL. ---CWY2190talk 01:05, 27 May 2007 (UTC) Tropical Depression One-E Official now. --Ajm81 02:33, 27 May 2007 (UTC) :Should become TS Alvin soon as well. CrazyC83 03:28, 27 May 2007 (UTC) ::It looks absolutely terrible on satellite. Dropped to 25kt by NRL. Jake52 My talk 19:00, 27 May 2007 (UTC) :::Yeah, looks like Alvin will have to wait. Cyclone1(02:21 UTC -28/05/2007) ::::Maybe not. 2100 Discussion: "I DON'T SEE ANY REASON WHY THE DEPRESSION SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO REACH AND MAINTAIN STORM STRENGTH" ---CWY2190talk 20:51, 28 May 2007 (UTC) 01E.ALVIN Per NRL, we have Alvin. --Ajm81 01:36, 29 May 2007 (UTC) :Nice little comeback by Alvin. ---CWY2190talk 02:21, 29 May 2007 (UTC) Tropical Storm Alvin Official now. --Ajm81 02:40, 29 May 2007 (UTC) :A typical harmless EPac system. Now TD2-E/Barbara may be different... CrazyC83 22:13, 29 May 2007 (UTC) ::"I DON'T KNOW ABOUT SIMON AND THEODORE...BUT ALVIN IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE." Cute. They just couldn't resist could they? :D -- SkyFury 03:47, 1 June 2007 (UTC) Looks like Alvin's remnants are producing a little convection and the NRL still has it up. Maybe its trying to re-organize? ---CWY2190talk 20:39, 3 June 2007 (UTC) ::The NHC thinks so, the TWO says it could redevelop. Cyclone1(15:01 UTC -4/06/2007) 02E.Barbara 91E.INVEST Just appeared on NRL. Looking fairly good. I think that's the system which was mentioned in the TWO. -- WmE 17:40, 28 May 2007 (UTC) : Now it just needs a low to develop. ---CWY2190talk 18:32, 28 May 2007 (UTC) :Meh, I don't know about this one. Nothing forming in the short term, that's for sure. Cyclone1(20:20 UTC -28/05/2007) ::Hindered by Alvin? CrazyC83 03:23, 29 May 2007 (UTC) :::Well, after initially being classified as TOO WEAK SSD is´giving it T1.0/1.0 numbers and the TWO states that CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW :::DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT :::DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD. -- WmE 08:43, 29 May 2007 (UTC) TCFA-- WmE 14:48, 29 May 2007 (UTC) TWO: IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON. --CWY2190 02E.NONAME Per NRL. -CWY2190 :Yep just appeared, and GFDL is quite bullish with it. -- WmE 18:09, 29 May 2007 (UTC) ::The GFDL bullish? Thats a first... -CWY2190 18:12, 29 May 2007 (UTC) ::: Well,GFDL is trying to dissipate Alvin for 2 runs now. Ok, no it doesn't try to dissipate it. GFDL calls for a major hurricane though, so that's quite strange. -- WmE 18:26, 29 May 2007 (UTC); WmE 18:27, 29 May 2007 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two-E Official. Forcasted to 85 knots in 120 hours. ---CWY2190talk 21:14, 29 May 2007 (UTC) :It's in damn good conditions for development. I would not be surprised if it beats all those forecasts in a rapid developing. Jake52 My talk 21:30, 29 May 2007 (UTC) ::Yeah that's very true, it may very well become a major hurricane. This one could be a close call for SW Mexico as well... CrazyC83 22:12, 29 May 2007 (UTC) :::What kind of wind shear conditions are we looking at (if any)? That could hinder development if it exists, but I agree that it is definately in a good position. --Galaxy001talk 01:14, 30 May 2007 (UTC) Looks like another blob is developing around 11N 91W ---CWY2190talk 22:29, 29 May 2007 (UTC) :Possible merging? --Galaxy001talk 01:14, 30 May 2007 (UTC) 35 kts per NRL, Barbara here we come. – NSLE 14:18, 30 May 2007 (UTC) Tropical Storm Barbara Yep, confirmed by the NHC. Still forecast to become a hurricane. -- WmE 14:52, 30 May 2007 (UTC) : I wonder if NOAA is getting nervous about that "below average" prediciton for the EPac? ---CWY2190talk 16:04, 30 May 2007 (UTC) ::Early activity doesn't necessarily translate into an active season. La Nina hasn't kicked in yet and the El Nino remnants are still there from last year...but that new track takes it towards an eventually landfall. CrazyC83 21:10, 30 May 2007 (UTC) :::Based on the 9 PM UTC 5 day forcast i can see barbara either Landing its Reminets in the Atlantic or Destroying Mexico Jason Rees 22:05, 30 May 2007 (UTC) "DUE TO THE APPARENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...BARBARA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION." Well that was anti-climactic. It appears Jason's reverse psycology worked. Now it'll crawl into Mexico as a rainstorm if that. -- SkyFury 03:53, 1 June 2007 (UTC) :Back at TS strenght. 40 kts and it's forecast to make landfall as a moderate TS. -- WmE 16:27, 1 June 2007 (UTC) ::Hmm, it seems Barb had a rejuvenating nights sleep. -- SkyFury 18:57, 1 June 2007 (UTC) ::: It looks like now SkyFury that my reverse psycology didnt work now after all -- Jason Rees 20:45, 01 june 2007 (UTC) :::: Well it's not exactly a Category 1 hurricane, but it's more than a rainstorm. -- SkyFury 06:36, 2 June 2007 (UTC)